The Behavior of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates Since October 1979

Short-term interest rates in the United States have been "too high" since October 1979 in the sense that both unconditional and conditional forecasts, based on an estimated vector autoregression model summarizing the prior experience,under predict short-term interest rates during this period. Although a non-structural model cannot directly answer the question of why this has been so,comparisons of alternative conditional forecasts point to the post-October 1979 relationship between the growth of real income and the growth of real money balances as closely connected to the level and pattern of short-term interestrates. This finding is consistent with the authors' earlier conclusion, based on analysis of a small structural macroeconometric model, that the high average level of interest rates has been due to a combination of slow growth of (nominal)money supply and continuing price inflation, which together have kept real balances small in relation to prevailing levels of economic activity.

Why Have Short-Term Interest Rates Been So High?

macroeconomics, short-term, interest rates

Does Maternal Methadone Dose Correlate with Severity of Intrauterine Growth Restriction in Infants with Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome?

Introduction : Previous studies demonstrate a relationship between maternal opioid use during pregnancy and smaller head circumference of infants with neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS). The goal of this study is to correlate maternal methadone dose and severity of growth restriction in infants with NAS admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of infants (≥35 weeks gestation) exposed to in utero methadone, born between August 2006 and May 2018, and admitted to a Philadelphia NICU for medical therapy for NAS. Growth parameters (birth weight, birth length, and birth head circumference) were compared between infants exposed various doses of methadone. The groups were compared using ANOVA, Post-Hoc Tukey, Chi-square and extended Fisher exact tests. Results: A total of 686 infants met the study criteria; 109 in the High dose group, 359 in the Intermediate dose group, and 218 in the Low dose group. There was no significant difference in the use of other drugs or smoking during the pregnancy. Infants exposed to higher doses of methadone displayed significantly smaller head circumferences and lengths at birth. The mean birth weight was similar between the three groups. Discussion: There may be a danger in prescribing high doses of methadone to pregnant mothers, as they may hinder the growth of the infant. We need to conduct more studies investigating how low head circumference and length affect long term developmental outcomes. These findings may help guide physicians toward the optimum dose of methadone for mothers

Collisionless shocks in plasmas

Collisionless shocks in plasmas, dissipation and dispersion in determining shock structur

The scalar complex potential and the Aharonov-Bohm effect

The Aharonov-Bohm effect is traditionally attributed to the effect of the electromagnetic 4-potential $A$, even in regions where both the electric field $\mathbf{E}$ and the magnetic field $\mathbf{B}$ are zero. The AB effect reveals that multiple-valued functions play a crucial role in the description of an electromagnetic field. We argue that the quantity measured by AB experiments is a difference in values of a multiple-valued complex function, which we call a complex potential or {pre-potential. We show that any electromagnetic field can be described by this pre-potential, and give an explicit expression for the electromagnetic field tensor through this potential. The pre-potential is a modification of the two scalar potential functions.Comment: 10 pages 2 figure

Ferromagnetism of 3^3He Films in the Low Field Limit

We provide evidence for a finite temperature ferromagnetic transition in 2-dimensions as $H \to 0$ in thin films of $^3$He on graphite, a model system for the study of two-dimensional magnetism. We perform pulsed and CW NMR experiments at fields of 0.03 - 0.48 mT on $^3$He at areal densities of 20.5 - 24.2 atoms/nm$^2$. At these densities, the second layer of $^3$He has a strongly ferromagnetic tendency. With decreasing temperature, we find a rapid onset of magnetization that becomes independent of the applied field at temperatures in the vicinity of 1 mK. Both the dipolar field and the NMR linewidth grow rapidly as well, which is consistent with a large (order unity) polarization of the $^3$He spins.Comment: 4 figure

Pionic charge exchange on the proton from 40 to 250 MeV

The total cross sections for pionic charge exchange on hydrogen were measured using a transmission technique on thin CH2 and C targets. Data were taken for pi- lab energies from 39 to 247 MeV with total errors of typically 2% over the Delta-resonance and up to 10% at the lowest energies. Deviations from the predictions of the SAID phase shift analysis in the 60 to 80 MeV region are interpreted as evidence for isospin-symmetry breaking in the s-wave amplitudes. The charge dependence of the Delta-resonance properties appears to be smaller than previously reported

Quasi-Chemical and Structural Analysis of Polarizable Anion Hydration

Quasi-chemical theory is utilized to analyze the roles of solute polarization and size in determining the structure and thermodynamics of bulk anion hydration for the Hofmeister series Cl$^-$, Br$^-$, and I$^-$. Excellent agreement with experiment is obtained for whole salt hydration free energies using the polarizable AMOEBA force field. The quasi-chemical approach exactly partitions the solvation free energy into inner-shell, outer-shell packing, and outer-shell long-ranged contributions by means of a hard-sphere condition. Small conditioning radii, even well inside the first maximum of the ion-water(oxygen) radial distribution function, result in Gaussian behavior for the long-ranged contribution that dominates the ion hydration free energy. The spatial partitioning allows for a mean-field treatment of the long-ranged contribution, leading to a natural division into first-order electrostatic, induction, and van der Waals terms. The induction piece exhibits the strongest ion polarizability dependence, while the larger-magnitude first-order electrostatic piece yields an opposing but weaker polarizability dependence. In addition, a structural analysis is performed to examine the solvation anisotropy around the anions. As opposed to the hydration free energies, the solvation anisotropy depends more on ion polarizability than on ion size: increased polarizability leads to increased anisotropy. The water dipole moments near the ion are similar in magnitude to bulk water, while the ion dipole moments are found to be significantly larger than those observed in quantum mechanical studies. Possible impacts of the observed over-polarization of the ions on simulated anion surface segregation are discussed.Comment: slight revision, in press at J. Chem. Phy

How unprovable is Rabin's decidability theorem?

We study the strength of set-theoretic axioms needed to prove Rabin's theorem on the decidability of the MSO theory of the infinite binary tree. We first show that the complementation theorem for tree automata, which forms the technical core of typical proofs of Rabin's theorem, is equivalent over the moderately strong second-order arithmetic theory $\mathsf{ACA}_0$ to a determinacy principle implied by the positional determinacy of all parity games and implying the determinacy of all Gale-Stewart games given by boolean combinations of ${\bf \Sigma^0_2}$ sets. It follows that complementation for tree automata is provable from $\Pi^1_3$- but not $\Delta^1_3$-comprehension. We then use results due to MedSalem-Tanaka, M\"ollerfeld and Heinatsch-M\"ollerfeld to prove that over $\Pi^1_2$-comprehension, the complementation theorem for tree automata, decidability of the MSO theory of the infinite binary tree, positional determinacy of parity games and determinacy of $\mathrm{Bool}({\bf \Sigma^0_2})$ Gale-Stewart games are all equivalent. Moreover, these statements are equivalent to the $\Pi^1_3$-reflection principle for $\Pi^1_2$-comprehension. It follows in particular that Rabin's decidability theorem is not provable in $\Delta^1_3$-comprehension.Comment: 21 page